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The margin of error in the Stanley Cup playoffs is razor thin. There were 17 overtime games in the first round. A timely goal or two made the difference in many series.

The Penguins won both of their overtime games with the Islanders. If the Islanders score in overtime once, the series would have gone seven games. If they had scored twice in overtime, the Islanders would have pulled off a huge upset and the Penguins would be sitting at home.

The Red Wings and Ducks played four overtime games, with the Red Wings winning three of them before finally getting a win in regulation in Game 7. The Bruins won Games 4 and 7 in overtime against the Maple Leafs. The Senators’ overtime victory in Game 4 was a huge turning point in their series with Montreal.

Every game between the Kings and Blues, both in overtime and in the regulation 60 minutes, was decided by one goal. That’s how small the gap between elation and dejection was during the first round.

This is a long-winded way of saying it took some good fortune for me to correctly pick all eight first-round series. In case you missed that, let me repeat it. I was 8-for-8 during the first round!

Ron Opher compiled a 3-5 record during Round 1. He and I both correctly picked the Penguins, Rangers and Blackhawks to win their series. Ron went 0-5 in the series in which we disagreed, but, as I’ve pointed out, one or two goals the other way and we could have finished the first round with identical records.

But fortunes can change from round to round during the Stanley Cup playoffs. Goats can become heroes and heroes can become goats. Similarly, Ron could go 4-0 during the conference semifinals. Considering we only disagreed on one series, I’m hoping Ron goes 3-1.

The following are our previews for the conference semifinals. (Seeding in parentheses)

EASTERN CONFERENCE

PENGUINS (1) vs. SENATORS (7)

Ron’s analysis: The big news in Ottawa’s win over Montreal was not the injury to Canadiens goalie Carey Price. While Price’s absence helped the Senators, it was Ottawa’s extremely physical play – starting with Eric Gryba’s illegal hit on Lars Eller – and coach Paul MacLean’s reaction to it (blaming the passer, Raphael Diaz, in the ultimate “head game”) that established their dominance over the Habs from a very early point in the series. With the Islanders also getting physical and giving Pittsburgh fits, plus the Pens’ goalie troubles, it’s fair to say that Ottawa looks like they are for real and Pittsburgh looks vulnerable.  For what it’s worth, last year’s No. 7 seed in the East (Washington) also beat the Nos. 2 and 1 seeds, so Ottawa has recent history on its side. Senators in 6

Eric’s analysis: The Penguins needed two overtime victories to put away the Islanders in six games. On the other hand, they might not have been in that predicament if not for goalie Marc-Andre Fleury’s second consecutive poor postseason. The Penguins better hope that veteran Tomas Vokoun solves their goalie problems. If not, the Senators could take advantage. As I wrote before the first round, Senators coach Paul MacLean has done as good a job as any coach in the NHL. He kept the Senators on track for the playoffs despite a ton of injuries. The Senators are tough and skilled. I’d love to pick them to beat the Penguins … but I can’t do it. Penguins in 7

BRUINS (4) vs. RANGERS (6)

Ron’s analysis: Flip a coin in this series. Both teams are talented, but always seem to make things harder on themselves than necessary.  I picked the Rangers to win the East before the season started, so I might as well stick with them. Rangers in 7

Eric’s analysis: The Bruins almost blew a 3-1 series lead against the Maple Leafs. They required a miraculous rally in Game 7, scoring twice with the goalie pulled in favor of an extra skater to tie the game, and then winning the game and series on Patrice Bergeron’s overtime goal. The Rangers also needed seven games to defeat the Capitals, although they closed out the series with a convincing 5-0 victory in Game 7. Upon closer inspection, though, the Rangers didn’t lose in regulation after Game 1. As was the case during the regular season, the Rangers seemed to round into form just in time. These two defensive-minded teams figure to produce a low-scoring series. In a low-scoring series, I like the team with the better goalie. Rangers in 6

WESTERN CONFERENCE

BLACKHAWKS (1) vs. RED WINGS (7)

Ron’s analysis: Not only did Chicago play the best hockey of any NHL team during the regular season, but the Blackhawks look just as primed now that the playoffs are in gear. There does not seem to be a weakness on the Hawks. Detroit is scrappy, but it remains to be seen whether they will parlay their good fortune against Anaheim – which they beat 4 times by a single goal, 3 times in overtime – into a roll against the President’s Trophy winners. Blackhawks in 5

Eric’s analysis: As Ron pointed out, the Red Wings sneaked past the Ducks by the slimmest of margins while the Blackhawks handled the Wild in five games. There aren’t many questions about the Blackhawks. The questions are all about the Red Wings. Goalie Jimmy Howard used to be considered a vulnerability for the Red Wings. Now he’s a strength. These aren’t the Red Wings of old, but they still have Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. Don’t be surprised if the Red Wings give the Blackhawks a run for their money. Blackhawks in 6

KINGS (5) vs. SHARKS (6)

Ron’s analysis: I said the Sharks-Canucks winner was one and done, and I still feel that way. Sure, San Jose looked impressive sweeping Vancouver, but the Canucks looked like a disinterested team in total disarray and in dire need of an overhaul. Meanwhile, the Kings also won 4 in a row – after spotting St. Louis a 2-0 series lead.  I know Eric likes the Kings to repeat – and I think it’s fair to say that the Stanley Cup Final will be played out between the Hawks and Kings in the Western Conference. Kings in 5

Eric’s analysis: The Sharks were terrific at home this season (17-2-5) and struggled on the road (8-14-2). But how much does a “road” record mean in this all-California series? (And, yes, I know San Jose and Los Angeles are about 325 miles apart.) The Sharks beat a Vancouver team that was accurately described by Ron as appearing disinterested and in disarray. The Kings beat a Blues team that was tough and competitive, and they did so after dropping the first two games. The Kings have a better goalie (Jonathan Quick), the best defenseman (Drew Doughty) and better weapons (including former Flyer Jeff Carter). Kings in 5

It’s a sad time at PhillyPhanatics.com.

What’s worse for two die-hard Flyers fans: no NHL due to the lockout or not having the Flyers in the playoffs?

It’s not like we wish the 2012-13 – make that the 2013 season – never happened. But it’s not exactly like we enjoyed it, either.

In any event, we’ve been watching and taking notes, especially of the Eastern Conference teams, which the Flyers played during this truncated schedule. And now it’s time to try to predict the almost unpredictable: the Stanley Cup playoffs.

First, I will pay myself on the back for picking 7 of the 8 Western Conference playoff teams correctly (missing on Anaheim and instead having Nashville in).

Before I get too full of myself, I did very poorly in the East, picking only 4 of 8 correctly (though 4 of my top 5 got in). Who saw Montreal as a No. 2 seed after a disastrous season last year? Who saw Toronto and the Islanders making the strides needed to finally end their long playoff droughts? Need I remind you that those 3 teams finished in the bottom 3 spots in the Eastern Conference last season? I also missed the lone Southeast Division team (Washington), although I did correctly pick only one Southeast division team to make it.

My two Cup finalists (the Blues and the Rangers) both made it – but definitely struggled to get there.

Do I still have faith in those two teams? Why not? It’s the Stanley Cup playoffs and anything can happen. Maybe a No. 8 seed will even win the Cup (oh yeah, that happened last year).

EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) PENGUINS vs. (8) ISLANDERS
Ron’s analysis: Not the matchup Pittsburgh was hoping for (that would have been Ottawa), but definitely better than drawing the Rangers, who were sitting in the 8^th spot through most of the home stretch.

The upstart Isles will give the Pens fits, but in the end, it’s a reverse of the 1982 playoffs, where it was the underdog Penguins, after getting blown out twice on the Island, having their owner tell fans to stay away, and rallying to take the series to the limit before losing late in Game 5. Randy Carlyle and Michel Dion had unforgettable series. Will John Taveras do the same for the heavy underdogs from Uniondale? Penguins in 6

Eric’s analysis: Viewed from the Islanders’ perspective, this is the team they didn’t want to play. Yes, the Islanders are happy simply for making the playoffs, but, regardless of whether Sidney Crosby plays, they would have been much better off against the Canadiens or Capitals. Penguins in 5

(2) CANADIENS vs. (7) SENATORS
Ron’s analysis: The Senators generally underachieve in the playoffs. The Habs have raised expectations with their worst-to-second turnaround. Ottawa, uncharacteristically, was the top goals-against team in the East and second in the league. That tells me there will be multiple overtime games in this series; I’m figuring three of them. Canadiens in 7

Eric’s analysis: Paul MacLean has done as good a job as any coach in the NHL. Despite numerous injuries to key players, MacLean kept the Senators on track for the playoffs. Now they’re getting healthier. Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson is back, as is goalie Craig Anderson. But will it be enough to overcome the Canadiens? Senators in 7

(3) CAPITALS vs. (6) RANGERS
Ron’s analysis: This is a rematch of last season’s conference semifinal series, where the Capitals – as a No. 7 seed – stunned the top-seeded Rangers after disposing of the second-seeded Bruins in the first round. The Caps are arguably a better team this year, and Alex Ovechkin has found his game again, leading the NHL in goals scored to capture his third Rocket Richard trophy.

But one man does not a team make – even come playoff time. Last season, Ovechkin was benched for long stretches in the playoffs by then-head coach Dale Hunter, and the team flourished. While the Rangers have struggled to find consistency, they finished strong (7-3-0 in their last 10) and finished with just one less point than Washington in a much stronger division. Rangers in 6

Eric’s analysis: The Rangers were much better during their final 10 games. The Capitals won’t be intimidated by the Rangers, but the Blue-shirts were probably the worst draw for the Capitals. If the scores are high, it will be good for the Capitals. But chances are the scores won’t get too high with Henrik Lundqvist in net. Rangers in 7

(4) BRUINS vs. (5) MAPLE LEAFS
Ron’s analysis: The Bruins are a really good team .. .on paper. They have a strong defense. But they are really struggling right now (3-5-2 in their last 10), especially on offense. They recently came into the Wells Fargo Center and the going-nowhere Flyers beat them soundly. It looked like the whole Bruins team was out of sync, and the only player that seemed to have any speed was Tyler Seguin.

Meanwhile, Toronto may be playing with the house’s money, ending their playoff drought at 7 seasons. But that’s no reason to be one and done. The Leafs are a well-balanced team, and arguably are as much the embodiment of a team as any (with the possible exception of Montreal) in terms of the whole being greater than the sum of their parts. Leafs in 5

Eric’s analysis: The Bruins struggled down the stretch, but I simply don’t believe in the Maple Leafs. This may have been a better draw for the Bruins than if they had won their division and secured the second seed. Bruins in 6

Ron: Dare I look ahead…
Rangers over Penguins
Leafs over Canadiens
Eastern Conference Finals
Rangers over Leafs

WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) BLACKHAWKS vs. (8) WILD
Ron’s analysis: Minnesota made a big splash with the free agent signings of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise. Chicago made a big splash with a 24-game streak with no regulation losses to start the season. I know which one impresses me more. Blackhawks in 5

Eric’s analysis: I thought the Blackhawks would get off to a slow start, their coach’s job would be in jeopardy and they would miss the playoffs. Instead, they got off to an incredible start and cruised to the No. 1 seed. Blackhawks in 5

(2) DUCKS vs. (7) RED WINGS
Ron’s analysis: Anaheim had a surprisingly good season. Detroit, without Niklas Lidstrom, was not surprisingly on the playoff bubble (they finished No. 7; I had them at No. 8), but made the postseason for the 22nd straight time. The Red Wings are not like the Rangers, who are better on paper than their play showed. While I’m not a big believer in Anaheim, I don’t think the Wings have another gear like they used to. Ducks in 7

Eric’s analysis: The Ducks surprised a lot of people this season, including Ron and me. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are terrific forwards. I know Niklas Lidstrom is gone, but Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk  still strike fear into opposing goalies. Red Wings in 7

(3) CANUCKS vs. (6) SHARKS
Ron’s analysis: San Jose is not a good playoff team. You could say they are the Ottawa of the West. They are also were mediocre down the stretch (5-5-0 in their last 10) and only are playoff-bound because of their phenomenal 17-2-5 home record (they were 8-14-2 on the road). Given that the Sharks play 3 games, at most, at home in this series, I like the Canucks almost by default – even though I think that the winner of this series is one-and-done. Canucks in 7

Eric’s analysis: As Ron points out, there is a tremendous disparity between the Sharks’ record at home and on the road. On the other hand, the Canucks won the Northwest Division, the weakest of the three Western Conference divisions. Surprise, surprise: there is a goaltending issue in Vancouver. Cory Schneider is coming off a “body” injury. Not lower body or upper body. Simply a “body” injury. Roberto Luongo got roasted in the regular-season finale and then refused to speak with the media. Sharks in 6

(4) BLUES vs. (5) KINGS
Ron’s analysis: This is a rematch of last season’s Western Conference semifinals, which the Kings won in a sweep. The Kings are looking to become the first team since the 1997-98 Red Wings to repeat as Cup champs. Good luck to them.

Yes, L.A. is good, but the Kings made it look easy last season, going 16-4 in the playoffs. As we know, getting 16 playoff wins in hockey is, notwithstanding last season’s run by the Kings, the toughest road to a championship in all of professional sports.Their opponent is talented and hungry, and coached by a prior Cup winner (Ken Hitchcock, who won with Dallas). This series will ramp up in intensity to a fever pitch, and will be regarded as the best series in the first round. The difference will be Game 7 in St. Louis, where the Kings (who were 8-12-4 on the road this year) will again struggle to put a good game together on the road. Blues in 7

Eric’s analysis: This series matches up our preseason picks to win the Stanley Cup. Ron picked the Blues; I picked the Kings to repeat. That makes it pretty obvious which way we’re going to pick this series. One area in which we agree is that this will be the best first-round series. Former Flyers Jeff Carter was fourth in goals with 26. Kings in 7

Ron: Dare I look ahead…
Blues over Blackhawks
Ducks over Canucks
Western Conference Finals
Blues over Ducks