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Points allowed during 1st quarter this season by Penn State

Putting it on the Line

Posted by Eric Fisher On October 11

I was due for a stinker.

After my best first four weeks since I started writing “Putting it on the Line,” I went 4-9-1 during Week 5, with only one of my top five picks panning out. But, like a kicker, prognosticators must have a short memory.

Truthfully, we have long memories. We fondly remember the team that’s been covering the spread all year and remember the games we lost due to a meaningless late field goal. What we can’t do, however, is allow the previous week’s results to overly influence the current week’s picks..

There are too many big spreads this week, but I’m not comfortable making the Jets (+9½ vs. Patriots), Dolphins (+11½ at Falcons) one of my best picks. I almost selected the Broncos (-12 against the dysfunctional Giants) as one of my top picks, but the spread is too large to be overly confident picking a team that doesn’t score a lot of points.

My best bet is the Ravens (-6½) over the Bears, who are on the road after a narrow Monday night loss to the Vikings. One team that I like to cover a big spread is the Texans (-9½), although that may say more about the plight of the visiting Browns than my faith in the Texans.

I wavered back and forth on the Eagles (-3 at Carolina) before selecting them to cover. I’d stay away from that game.

Let’s try to keep the roll going with my Week 6 selections:

(Home team in CAPS)                                           

(Winning team against the line in bold)

Eagles +3 at PANTHERS

TEXANS -9½ vs. Browns

JETS +9½ vs. Patriots

Dolphins +11½ at FALCONS

Lions +5at SAINTS

Packers -3 at VIKINGS

RAVENS -6½ vs. Bears

49ers +10 at REDSKINS

JAGUARS -2½ vs. Rams

Bucs -2½ at CARDINALS

CHIEFS -4½ vs. Steelers

RAIDERS -3 vs. Chargers

BRONCOS -12 vs. Giants

Best bet: RAVENS -6½ vs. Bears

Other top picks: TEXANS -9½ vs. Browns; Bucs -2½ at CARDINALS; CHIEFS -4½ vs. Steelers; Lions +5at SAINTS

Last week: 4-9-1 (44-30-2 overall)

Best bet: 0-1 (3-2 overall)

Other top picks: 1-3 (9-11 overall)

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