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Week 8: 10-4, 3-1 on recommended picks
Overall: 74-44 (63%), 21-11 on recommended picks (66%)

I am picking up steam as the season chugs along.

Getting rid of the replacement refs has helped a lot.

Getting rid of the early-season pretenders (you know who you are in Arizona, Minnesota and Buffalo) and watching perennial contenders starting to get it together also helps nail down more correct picks.

The Jets’ embarrassing loss at home to Miami stood in the way of a second 4-0 week on recommended picks; fortunately for me – and probably for the Jets too – they are on a bye week.

Here are my week 9 picks:

1. Texans over Bills

Both of these teams are coming off a bye. When we last left them, the Texans rebounded from their loss to the Packers to annihilate what could be the second best team in the AFC – the Ravens – by 43-13. Meanwhile, the Bills lost to the team with the worst defense in the AFC (Tennessee). How are they going to beat the best defense?

As you know, Houston is my pick to win it all this year. Somehow, I hadn’t yet gotten around to picking them as the top overall recommended pick yet (which I limit to once per team) – so this is a good week to get that out of the way.

2. Seahawks over Vikings

Seattle is 3-0 at home and Minnesota is 1-2 on the road. With the Niners pulling away in the NFC West and the Bears doing the same in the North, this game will have a huge impact in the wildcard race, and the Seahawks will rise to the occasion at home.

3. Lions over Jaguars

While there are a handful of good plays this week, I feel the need to stay away from the Bears heading on the road after escaping with a home win over Carolina. The Browns are playing inspired defense and the Ravens are not – and never have been – the same team on the road that they are at home.

In these situations, it’s often better to look for a team you’re pretty sure is going to lose – as opposed to a team you’re pretty sure is gong to win.

That team is the 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars, losers of their last 4 games and playing without star running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jags are last in the league in points per game, yards per game and passing yards per game. They are 27th in rushing yards per game – but again, they are without Jones-Drew.

Oh…and their QB, Blaine Gabbert, may play – but has an injured throwing shoulder.

4. Chargers over Chiefs

The Chiefs still suck.

Other week 9 picks:

GB over AZ
CHI over TEN
DEN over CIN
CAR over WASH
BAL over CLE
IND over MIA
TB over OAK
PIT over NYG
DAL over ATL
PHI over NO

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