Week 6: 8-6, 2-2 on recommended picks
Overall: 56-35 (62%), 14-10 on recommended picks (58%)
In a week of tight lines and few clear favorites, I’m happy to escape with am 8-6 record. But with picking the upsets by Cleveland, Seattle and Green Bay correctly, I’m less then satisfied. I was 6-0 in the 1:00pm games – where I have historically excelled, until I was derailed by the nearly 4-hour Eagles debacle, and the unraveling continued into the late afternoon and evening.
Rather than wallow, I will cut right to the chase and give you 4 games – and remind you that pick #1 has been pretty poor this year (1-5), so you might want to skip over that one, since I’m 13-5 combined on the other three picks:
1. Bears over Lions
Yes, the Lions looked better last week. Says here the Eagles made them look that good. Detroit still has lots of problems.
Chicago, meanwhile, is coming off a bye and has the best point differential in the NFL, at +78. They are a really good team, and they should be able to take care of Detroit – a team which is getting little attention in its hometown right now.
2. 49ers over Seahawks
Seattle is coming off a big win over New England, while San Francisco is coming off a terrible performance against the Giants.
The Niners’ +58 point differential is tied for 3rd in the NFC and 4th in the NFL. Oddly, this is their first divisional game of the season.
The Seahawks are only 1-2 on the road, with both losses coming in divisional games. All signs point to a San Francisco win.
3. Patriots over Jets
There is no real shame in losing to the improving Seahawks in Seattle this season, which New England just did.
And with no one running away with the AFC East so far – in fact all of the AFC East is jogging in place, with each team stuck at 3-3 – the Patriots have a chance to kick-start a 10-game stretch where they take control of the division. as they usually do.
New England’s +51 point differential is second in the AFC to 5-1 Houston. Expect a rise in the standings to go with this stat.
4. Texans over Ravens
Last week, I picked the Packers to beat Houston – even though I still think the Texans will win the Super Bowl.
Losing MLB Brian Cushing to a season-ending injury was a big blow, and it will take Houston time to adjust.
Now the Ravens, whose only loss this year has been to the Eagles (hard to believe). will be dealing without having Ray Lewis. Plus Baltimore has been a marginal road team for years – they barely beat the lousy Chiefs in their only other road game of the season. In fact, I am picking all but one home team to win this week.
So now you see why I can actually recommend picking against a 5-1 team.
Other week 7 picks:
BUF over TEN
CAR over DAL
IND over CLE
MIN over AZ
NYG over WASH
STL over GB
NO over TB
OAK over JAX
CIN over PIT