Philly Phanatics – THE online community for Philly sports fanatics

As the Phillies come out of the All-Star break, not only 14 games behind the first-place Washington Nationals, but also 10 games out of a playoff spot — with 7 teams to leapfrog — the question may not be as simple as whether the Phillies are “buyers” or “sellers” at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but what exactly might they buy and what exactly might they sell and at what price?

The Phillies have 2 players hitting free agency after this season that might bring draft pick compensation if they played the rest of the season on the Phillies and signed elsewhere: Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino. Under new free agent rules, the Philies would have to offer each a minimum one-year contract at approximately $12.4 million or more (tied to the average of the top 125 contracts in MLB) to get compensation. The Phillies would certainly do that for Hamels, and he’d decline (he’s looking for 7-8 years and $175-200 million), but it’s less clear that they would do that for Victorino, or that he’d decline. Victorino is completing a 3-year, $22 million contact and is believed to be seeking a 5-year deal in the $60-70 million range, but he might find few takers beyond 4 years and $40-50 million.

Naturally, the players who would bring more in compensation are also the players whom the Phillies would either want to bring back or would need to replace with comparable players. Also unlike in the NHL, where players traded away in March sometimes sign back with their old teams in July, it’s safe to say that anyone the Phillies deal away will not sign to play here next year and beyond.

That would make a trade of Cole Hamels a very risky and unpopular move.

In fact, the Phillies are reportedly in discussions with John Boggs, Hamels’ agent. Which makes perfect sense, because the Phillies need to gauge whether they can re-sign Hamels before they even think of trading him.

Says here that the Phillies only trade Hamels if Hamels states that he won’t re-sign with the Philliea and demands a trade. That gets the Phillies somewhat off the hook in terms of bad PR and makes a trade prudent. Realistically, however, Hamels would not likely do that since it eliminates a significant bidder for his services.

Another issue for the Phillies is that a team trading for Hamels gets no compensation if he signs elsewhere (whereas the Phillies get a “sandwich” pick between the first and second rounds of the draft if they hold onto him and then lose him in the offseason). Add in that Zack Greinke and Ryan Dempster are also likely on the trade market as pending free agents, and Matt Garza is also on the trade market and under arbitration-fueled team control for 2013 and Hamels’ trade value is likely a lot lower than the Phillies want it to be.

Therefore, it is very likely that Hamels finishes out the season as a Phillie, tests the free agent waters, and from that point on his destination is anyone’s guess.

Some have said that trading Cliff Lee would free up the money to sign Hamels. But the Hamels signing isn’t just about money. Hamels may have seen just enough of a glimpse into the future this season that he might not want to hitch his wagon to the Amaro Express. Plus, Lee’s 3 years at $87.5 million or 4 years at $102.5 million may be difficult to move without the Phillies paying a portion of it – at which point, they would probably opt to keep Lee.

There is also the rumor that the Phillies would consider exceeding the luxury tax threshold, which will remain at $178 million in 2013, in order to preserve the goodwill they’ve built with fans (and their own players).

*****

Victorino is another story. His contract demands seem out of line. He’s having a down year. He doesn’t have a solid spot in the batting order.

It would make a lot of sense to move Victorino for a third-base prospect and a bullpen piece if possible. Or the Phillies can hold onto him, offer the qualifying contract and collect compensation if he signs elsewhere, or have Victorino and Hunter Pence back on one-year deals.

The problem with not trading Victorino is that the Phillies really need a center fielder who can lead off, so they can finally drop Jimmy Rollins in the order. The best fit would be former Phillie Michael Bourn, currently on the Atlanta Braves, but heading to free agency this off-season.

If the Phillies are waiting on Victorino’s response to a qualifying offer, they may miss out on Bourn. The best way to approach this is to either trade Victorino now, or to be prepared to have Bourn in center field for the long term, and Victorino and Pence on the corners for 2013 only.

*****

Who could the Phillies acquire for now and for later? Aside from trying to upgrade the bullpen, third base is another area of need. Two names that are drawing interest around the league are Aramis Ramirez of the Brewers (whom the Phillies talked with before re-signing Rollins) and Chase Headley of the Padres. Ramirez, who is 34 years old, has $30 million remaining for 2 years (or $40 millon for 3 years). Headley is only 28 and had 2 more arbitration years, probably costing about 1/2 of Ramirez’ salary. Problem is that Headley would cost a lot more in trade, and the Phillies need to tread carefully on trading any more top prospects away if they are about to part company with a parade of veterans over the next 2 seasons (Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Hunter Pence and Carlos Ruiz could be gone after 2013 – with only Ruiz seeming to be a priority to keep).

That’s why signing Hamels now – if possible – would give the team enough clarity to consider trading pitching prospects for Headley and keep the Amaro Express chugging along the right track.

*****

So what’s the dream scenario? And what’s the nightmare scenario??

The dream scenario is that the Phillies sign Hamels, trade for Headley and keep all their current guys – except possibly Polanco, who could be shipped to San Diego along with 2 or 3 prospects. They might even be able to pry loose a bullpen piece such as Dale Thayer or Joe Thatcher from the Padres. They make an improbable run to a playoff berth and maybe go far in the postseason.

Their 2012 lineup would be:

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Pence
Ruiz
Headley
Pierre/Mayberry

Their 2013 lineup would be:

Bourn
Utley
Pence
Howard
Ruiz
Rollins
Headley
Mayberry/Brown

The more realistic dream scenario has them trading Victorino in-season, re-signing Hamels and signing Michael Bourn in the off-season.

Their 2013 lineup would be:

Bourn
Utley
Pence
Howard
Ruiz
Rollins
Mayberry/Brown
Fontenot/Wigginton (with a possible run at Headley or Ramirez via trade or Kevin Youkilis via free agency – though Hamels and Bourn signings may dry up the money for third base)

Rotation would be:

Halladay
Hamels
Lee
Worley
Kendrick

How about the nightmare scenario? Well in that scary scenario, they would lose Hamels, they wouldn’t be able to sign Bourn, Youkilis returns to the White Sox and the Phillies feel they are so far behind that trading prospects to upgrade at third is not worth it. They may even look into dealing Halladay, who would be in the last year of his contract, and later Pence as well. They do end up extending Ruiz, and talk to Utley about an incentive-laden extension that takes them out of paying $15 million per season for him unless he performs like a $15 million player.

The 2013 lineup would be:

Rollins
Pridie
Utley
Howard
Pence
Ruiz
Mayberry/Brown
Fontenot/Wigginton

The rotation would be:

Halladay
Lee
Worley
Kendrick
Cloyd/Biddle/Colvin/May or a re-tread like Scott Elarton, Jason Marquis or someone similar

The 2014 lineup would be:

Rollins
Pridie
Brown
Howard
Ruiz
Mayberry
Third Baseman
Galvis

The rotation would be:

Lee
Worley
Kendrick
2 from among Cloyd/Biddle/Colvin/May or a re-tread like Scott Elarton, Jason Marquis or someone similar

The future of the Phillies will begin to take shape over the next 18 days.

Tweet