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Honesty is the best policy. Last week was the perfect example of the veracity of that statement. Instead of pretending I had mortal locks or games of the year, I told you I didn’t have a good feeling about last week’s slate of games. I was correct.

My feelings of uncertainty were validated with a 6-10 record against the line in Week 3. Even my “other top picks” weren’t good (1-3). One area in which I continue to do well is my best bet. The Ravens (-3 at Rams) easily covered last week, improving my best bet record to 3-0.

Speaking of undefeated, two of the NFL’s three undefeated teams are in my “other top picks” this week. I like the Bills (-3 at Bengals) to cover the spread and remain undefeated. The Lions, however, are going to fall from the ranks of the unbeatens (according to me, at least) when they travel to Dallas, where they are 1½-point underdogs.

In order to remain unbeaten with my best bets, I’m going back to familiar territory. For the third time in four weeks, I’m picking the Dolphins’ opponent. The Chargers slipped past the Chiefs last week while the Dolphins suffered a narrow loss to Cleveland. The Chargers (-7) should bounce back from their narrow escape and handily beat the visiting Dolphins.

I also like the Eagles to bounce back from their loss to the Giants, but the number (-9) is a little high. That is the exact point differential I predicted in my Eagles-49ers preview, so, while I like the Eagles, the number is too high for my to make them one of my top picks.

The following are my Week 4 picks: 

(Home team in CAPS)

(Winning team against the line in bold)

COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Lions

Saints -7 at JAGUARS

EAGLES -9 vs. 49ers

Redskins -2 at RAMS

BROWNS -1 vs. Titans

Bills -3 at BENGALS

Vikings -2 at CHIEFS

BEARS -6.5 vs. Panthers

TEXANS -3.5 vs. Steelers

Falcons -4.5 at SEAHAWKS

Giants -1 at CARDINALS

CHARGERS -7 vs. Dolphins

PACKERS -13 vs. Broncos

Patriots -4.5 at RAIDERS

RAVENS -3.5 vs. Jets

BUCS -10 vs. Colts

Best Bet: CHARGERS -7 vs. Dolphins

Other top picks: COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Lions, Bills -3 vs. Bengals, Patriots -4.5 at RAIDERS, Falcons -4.5 at SEAHAWKS

(overall record in parentheses)

Week 3 record: 6-10 (19-27-2)

Best bet: 1-0 (3-0)

Other top picks: 1-3 (4-6-2)

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Is it too early in the season for a “must” win? Maybe not.

The Eagles are 1-2 entering Sunday’s game (1 p.m.) against San Francisco at Lincoln Financial Field. A loss to the 49ers would leave the Eagles in a deep hole, with road games against the undefeated Bills and the 2-1 Redskins remaining before the bye week.

This stretch of games didn’t seem too difficult before the season, but that was before the Eagles coughed up leads against the Falcons and Giants the past two weeks. Nothing should be taken for granted.

The 49ers (2-1), by the way, have a better record than the Eagles. The 49ers’ victories came against the Seahawks and Bengals. More impressive, however, was their 27-24 loss to the Cowboys.

But the 49ers are supporting actors in Sunday’s drama. The leading roles are played by Eagles. How they perform will determine whether the Birds bounce back or fall into a 1-3 abyss. Therefore, we will preview Sunday’s game through the following six Eagles-related questions.

Can Michael Vick make it through an entire game?

This isn’t meant as a facetious question. Vick, who is listed as probable with a bruised right hand, has been forced out of the last two games due to injury. Expect the Eagles to reduce Vick’s exposure to injury through play-calling and by keeping the tight end in more often to block. Expect to see Vick throw the ball away more often instead of scrambling around the backfield trying to make a big play.

Will we see the old DeSean Jackson?

Jackson had six receptions for 102 yards during the Birds’ opening-week victory over the Rams. He’s only had two catches in each of the past two games, gaining a combined 51 yards. The elephant in the room is that if Jackson’s production remains low, it may complicate efforts to sign him to a new contract.

Will the changes on defense make a difference?

Rookie Brian Rolle replaces rookie Casey Matthews as the starter at weakside linebacker. Second-year safety Nate Allen replaces second-year safety Kurt Coleman in the starting lineup. The 49ers may not be the best test for the new alignment. Leading rusher Frank Gore saw limited action in practice due to an ankle injury, as did receiver Michael Crabtree (foot). Tight end Vernon Davis, who had eight catches for 114 yards last Sunday against the Bengals, should provide a test for a defense that has had difficulty covering tight ends.

Can the Eagles score in the red zone?

The 49ers are last in the NFL in offensive yards, but their defense is pretty good. If the Eagles get the ball inside the 5-yard line this week, I don’t think we’ll see much of fullback Owen Schmitt carrying the ball, nor should Vick be attempting quarterback sneaks with his sore hand.

Can the Eagles contain the 49ers’ special teams?

If there’s an area in which the 49ers have an advantage over the Eagles, it’s special teams. Long-time Eagle David Akers is the 49ers’ kicker. Akers is certainly familiar with the air currents at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles must also contain Ted Ginn, Jr., on kickoff and punt returns. Ginn returned a punt and kickoff for touchdowns in less than a minute during the 49ers’ season-opening victory over the Seahawks.

Which is the key matchup for Sunday’s game?

The key matchup is the Eagles defense against the 49ers offense. If Gore is limited, the Eagles should be able to tee off on quarterback Alex Smith. If the Eagles’ front four generates pressure on Smith, it should lead to turnovers. If, however, the 49ers are able to move the ball against the Eagles defense, it could be another long afternoon for the Birds.

Prediction: Eagles 24, 49ers 15

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