Honesty is the best policy. Last week was the perfect example of the veracity of that statement. Instead of pretending I had mortal locks or games of the year, I told you I didn’t have a good feeling about last week’s slate of games. I was correct.
My feelings of uncertainty were validated with a 6-10 record against the line in Week 3. Even my “other top picks” weren’t good (1-3). One area in which I continue to do well is my best bet. The Ravens (-3 at Rams) easily covered last week, improving my best bet record to 3-0.
Speaking of undefeated, two of the NFL’s three undefeated teams are in my “other top picks” this week. I like the Bills (-3 at Bengals) to cover the spread and remain undefeated. The Lions, however, are going to fall from the ranks of the unbeatens (according to me, at least) when they travel to Dallas, where they are 1½-point underdogs.
In order to remain unbeaten with my best bets, I’m going back to familiar territory. For the third time in four weeks, I’m picking the Dolphins’ opponent. The Chargers slipped past the Chiefs last week while the Dolphins suffered a narrow loss to Cleveland. The Chargers (-7) should bounce back from their narrow escape and handily beat the visiting Dolphins.
I also like the Eagles to bounce back from their loss to the Giants, but the number (-9) is a little high. That is the exact point differential I predicted in my Eagles-49ers preview, so, while I like the Eagles, the number is too high for my to make them one of my top picks.
The following are my Week 4 picks:
(Home team in CAPS)
(Winning team against the line in bold)
COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Lions
Saints -7 at JAGUARS
EAGLES -9 vs. 49ers
Redskins -2 at RAMS
BROWNS -1 vs. Titans
Bills -3 at BENGALS
Vikings -2 at CHIEFS
BEARS -6.5 vs. Panthers
TEXANS -3.5 vs. Steelers
Falcons -4.5 at SEAHAWKS
Giants -1 at CARDINALS
CHARGERS -7 vs. Dolphins
PACKERS -13 vs. Broncos
Patriots -4.5 at RAIDERS
RAVENS -3.5 vs. Jets
BUCS -10 vs. Colts
Best Bet: CHARGERS -7 vs. Dolphins
Other top picks: COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Lions, Bills -3 vs. Bengals, Patriots -4.5 at RAIDERS, Falcons -4.5 at SEAHAWKS
(overall record in parentheses)
Week 3 record: 6-10 (19-27-2)
Best bet: 1-0 (3-0)
Other top picks: 1-3 (4-6-2)